One company towns

There are studies on the fates of one company towns. Most of the studies are for coal towns in the U.S.

One study, done in 1995, talks about government one company towns in Kazakhstan whose dynamics seem to fit Los Alamos in aggregate. The study was done in Kazakhstan in order to get enough data to draw any conclusions. Similar towns are very rare elsewhere.

The results are not encouraging. The expectation is massive unemployment.

This was the conclusion on Friday. The best guess for today is that the government company will collapse but that the town will survive on 50% of its current income and may do well on a time scales of fifteen years. The town would be dramatically different but healthier.

The next five to ten years, however, look bleak.

The same analysis seems to apply to Livermore, CA with corrections for the proximity of a big city and lack of the gorgeous scenery of Los Alamos.

We will see what happens.

Originally posted on 16 June.