Exile

I just finished reading "Exile" by Richard North Patterson.

The book is very interesting. I brings real stories and real characters (OK, fictional characters that act like real people) to the ongoing Palestinian - Israeli struggle.

If I try to apply the lessons of this book to the ongoing events at LANL, I get the following insight.

There is no global conspiracy. There is no corporate hobglobin nor any DOE doppelganger.

Each person is acting in what they perceive to be their own self interest under the local rules of the system as they think that these rules exist.

What we see, and do not like, is the emergent behavior of this system when everyone is following their own perceived self interest.

What destroys the system (the multiperson prisoner's dilemma) is the fact that the self interest of a number of people is antithetical to the health of the overall system and that this self interest is sufficient to take the system apart. Essentially, we have the 'tragedy of the commons.'

Here is one of the apparent tragedies:

At a national level, it is in the interest of the Republican party to retain the presidency. To do this they need to raise campaign funds sufficient to beat the Democrats. One traditional way to do this is to award contracts to 'Republican' companies, not universities, that can contribute to campaigns. The cost of awarding the contract to 'Republican' companies is paid in tax payer dollars not in 'Republican dollars.' The campaign contributions come back in 'Republican dollars.'

From the point of view of national campaigns, Republicans keep the presidency at the cost of a few politically insignificant government jobs that used to defend against threats that no longer exist. At another level, the Republican presidential victory is being put on a credit card with the hopes that the bill will not need to be paid (there will never be a nuclear threat of any size).

The net effect is similar to:

"I made money selling land. My neighbor is mad at me. The land was in his yard."

Just a thought about forces far outside of Los Alamos that could be driving events within Los Alamos.